Earlier this week, I ranked this year’s Oscar nominees for Best Picture. The article was completely based on personal opinion. If you haven’t noticed yet, I love giving my personal opinion. My entire Internet existence is made up of ranting, raving and subjective ideas that I present as fact. It’s a lot of fun. The only problem with that philosophy is that my opinion doesn’t matter. No one cares what I think, nor does what I think change anything. So with Oscar Sunday right around the corner, there are two important questions that us nerds must answer: Who should win? and Who will win? I’ve already done the fun part by answering the first question. Now, it’s time to get down to business and make some real predictions. Remember, personal bias is alway fun but never smart. That’s why none of these picks will be influenced by my opinion. As a matter of fact, I won’t even mention who I believe should win each category. I’m simply going to analyze the facts, by comparing the results of other industry awards to the Oscars over the last ten years.
As I mentioned in the previous article, the politics surrounding the Oscars make them incredibly predictable. So if you’re involved in an Oscar pool this year, don’t get hung up on the nominees. You don’t need to see a single nominated movie. Just stick to numbers. The voters for the Golden Globes, BAFTA’s, Critic’s Choice Awards and others all belong to the Academy, meaning Hollywood has been indicating Oscar frontrunners for the last several months. Of course, upsets are possible. I’ve never been able to predict all 24 categories exactly right. But these are the outcomes that are most likely. If you have any interest in taking your friends’ money, go with these picks in your pool.
Best Picture: Birdman
Other nominees:
▪ American Sniper
▪ Boyhood
▪ The Grand Budapest Hotel
▪ The Imitation Game
▪ Selma
▪ The Theory of Everything
▪ Whiplash
It’s always an exciting year for the Oscars when Best Picture is a close race. This is one of those years. Boyhood was the early favorite after picking up the Golden Globe and the Critic’s Choice Award, but Birdman has gained some serious momentum after picking up wins with the three major guilds (Producer’s Guild, Director’s Guild and Screen Actor’s Guild). It’s become clear that critics side with Richard Linklater’s twelve-year epic while industry professionals prefer Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s dark comedy. With the Academy composed of both types of voters, the only question is: Which side has more pull? After correctly predicting the last seven Best Picture winners, the Producer’s Guild Awards have consistently been the best indicator (see chart below). There also hasn’t been a movie to win all three guild awards and lose Best Picture since Braveheart beat Apollo 13 in 1995. So the statistics slightly favor Birdman, but it could truly go either way.
Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Other nominees:
▪ Richard Linklater, Boyhood
▪ Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
▪ Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
▪ Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Generally speaking, the Best Director and Best Picture categories tend to go to the same movie. You can’t have a good movie without a good director. That’s why Richard Linklater was the early favorite for Boyhood. But as the tides started turning in Birdman‘s direction, the same happened for director Alejandro G. Iñárritu. Even if the Boyhood pulls the upset and wins Best Picture, still expect Iñárritu to come out on top. He recently won the Director’s Guild Award, which has only differed from the Oscars once in the last ten years: the year when Ben Affleck was infamously snubbed of a nomination for his work on Argo.
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Other nominees:
▪ Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
▪ Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
▪ Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
▪ Michael Keaton, Birdman
Of each of the 24 categories, this is the race I’m most excited about. Best Actor has come down to Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, the Hollywood veteran and the new up-and-comer. Although Keaton was the early favorite, a Screen Actor’s Guild win has made Redmayne the frontrunner. The SAG’s have overlapped with the Oscars in this category for each of the last ten years. Much like the Best Picture race, picking Redmayne would be the smart choice. But don’t count Mr. Mom out just yet. The Academy loves awarding actors who have been around for a while and payed their dues to the business. Which brings us to the next category…
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Other nominees:
▪ Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
▪ Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
▪ Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
▪ Reese Witherspoon, Wild
The “she’s due” argument has never held more weight than when talking about Julianne Moore. The actress has been nominated for five Oscars over the last seventeen years, and this will be the role to break her losing streak. Moore’s performance as Alzheimer victim Alice Howland has earn her a win in each of the major film awards this year, and there’s no reason why the Academy would vote differently. This category is probably the biggest lock of the entire ceremony.
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Other nominees:
▪ Robert Duvall, The Judge
▪ Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
▪ Edward Norton, Birdman
▪ Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Speaking of locks, J.K. Simmons is all but guaranteed the win for his performance as music instructor Terence Fletcher in Whiplish. Simmons, another industry veteran, has swept the other awards for his brilliantly intense performance. It’s a predictable win, but it’s well deserved.
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Other nominees:
▪ Laura Dern, Wild
▪ Kiera Knightley, The Imitation Game
▪ Emma Stone, Birdman
▪ Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Make that three! Like Moore and Simmons, Arquette has taken home trophies from the BAFTA’s, Golden Globes, Critic’s Choice and SAG’s. It’s very rare that so many of the major categories are dominated in such a fashion, but it happened nonetheless. With so much intrigue in the other categories, take comfort in knowing that at least three of your predictions will be correct.
Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Other nominees:
▪ Birdman
▪ Boyhood
▪ Foxcatcher
▪ Nightcrawler
The screenplay categories are a bit tricky this year. Among the originals are Boyhood and Birdman, the two Best Picture frontrunners. When Birdman won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice, it seemed like a lock for the Oscar. But after a win at the BAFTA’s and Writer’s Guild, it looks like Wes Anderson will get the nod for The Grand Budapest Hotel. It’s the type of unique movie that tends to do well this category (see Her and Django Unchained). But don’t be surprised with a Birdman victory.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Other nominees:
▪ American Sniper
▪ Inherent Vice
▪ The Theory of Everything
▪ Whiplash
The Oscars are the only awards this year to categorize Whiplash as an adapted screenplay. Although the movie is an original idea, director Damien Chazelle originally filmed one of the scenes as a short in order to get funding. To the Academy, that meant the screenplay was adapted. Therefore, we don’t have any indication of how Whiplash will do in this category. It’s a wild card. When in doubt the smart choice is to go with the guild, that’s why Imitation Game is the frontrunner. But keep your eye on the wild card.
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Other nominees:
▪ Big Hero 6
▪ The Boxtrolls
▪ Song of the Sea
▪ The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
The big story in this category is The Lego’s Movie lack of a nomination. After getting snubbed by the Academy, the film went on to win the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Producer’s Guild. It would have been the frontrunner if it was nominated. Instead we’re left with these nominees, and the only one to win a major award this year is How to Train Your Dragon 2 at the Golden Globes. Big Hero 6 could possibly upset, but it’s unlikely.
Best Foreign Language Film: Leviathan
Other nominees:
▪ Ida
▪ Tangerines
▪ Timbuktu
▪ Wild Tales
This is one of the few categories where I’m picking the upset. Hollywood insiders and Vegas oddsmakers have deemed Polish film Ida the frontrunner. I’m not convinced. Although Ida won the BAFTA and is nominated for Best Cinematography, history seems to favor Russian drama Leviathan. The Hollywood Foreign Press, the group that votes on the Golden Globes, has had the best track record in this category over the last ten years. That’s not entirely surprising since the voters are foreigners. Make no mistake, this would be an upset. The consensus disagrees with me, but I’m sticking to my pick.
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
It’s been the frontrunner all season long and, after wins at the BAFTA’s and Producer’s Guild, the ground-breaking Edward Snowden documentary is sure to take home the Oscar.
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki won the award last year for his work on Gravity. This year he’s responsible for the incredible visuals of Birdman, earning him all of this year’s major cinematography awards. He’s poised for back-to-back victories this Sunday.
Best Editing: Boyhood
Much like the screenplay category, Whiplash could be a sleeper here. A win at the BAFTA’s certainly helped it’s case. But because editing together twelve years of footage is no easy task, the Academy will most likely recognize Boyhood. The movie took home the American Cinema Editors Award and was snubbed of a BAFTA nomination.
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Every year, it seems like one movie cleans up in the technical categories. The Grand Budapest Hotel appears to be the one to do it this year. It’s won every costume award so far, and the streak will continue this Sunday.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
See last category.
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Although Production Design and Cinematography often overlap, the set design of Grand Budapest demonstrates the best of Wes Anderson’s visual style. The category can be unpredictable from time to time, but this is the safe bet.
Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Upon looking at the nominees, Interstellar seems to be the obvious choice. And after winning the BAFTA, Vegas has decided that it’s the favorite. But I’m going with another upset. The Visual Effects Society awarded the motion-capture technology of Dawn of Planet of the Apes. I’m going to trust their accuracy.
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Another tough category to predict, Best Original Score is between The Grand Budapest Hotel, which won the BAFTA, and The Theory of Everything, which won the Golden Globe. The Globes have predicted six of the last seven winners, giving Theory the edge.
Best Original Song: “Glory” from Selma
John Legend and Common’s tune from Selma won the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice. It’s a sure thing here.
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
It’s everyone’s favorite category! Even though no one knows the difference between editing and mixing, the unpredictability here can mean the difference between victory and heartbreak in your Oscar pool. Be very careful. War movies have a good track record in these categories, making American Sniper the frontrunner. Plus, it’s unlikely that the Academy would let Sniper go home empty-handed.
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Editing and mixing usually go to the same movie, so it would be wise to pick American Sniper in both categories. Then again, Whiplash won the BAFTA for Best Sound. Although it’s not a direct comparison, the Brits have been surprising accurate in this category over the last few years. Because Whiplash isn’t nominated for Best Sound Editing, expect a split.
Best Live Action Short: The Phone Call
I haven’t seen any of this year’s nominated shorts, nor are there any good indicators in the other major film awards. That’s why I’m trusting the Vegas odds and going with The Phone Call.
Best Animated Short: Feast
Again, I have no idea. Feast won the Annie Award, so it’s as good a guess as any.
Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
This is usually the hardest category to predict every year. If your idiot friend that doesn’t watch movies wins the pool, it will be because of this award. When in doubt, just go with Vegas.
Conclusion
Those are the picks. Hopefully many of them are wrong and this Sunday’s ceremony is an unpredictable one. Spoiler alert: it won’t be. If this wasn’t enough Oscar talk for you, listen to this week’s episode of The Nico Show for my full preview. And if you’re a real nerd, click here for all the award charts not included in the article. Yes, I made them all. And yes, I need a life. Have fun gambling and Happy Oscar Sunday!
Smartest guy in the room, dumbest guy outside of it.
